Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Europe: ECB Monetary Tightening Could Add to Liquidity Concerns for Emerging Markets

US: Growth Remains Strong, Re-Igniting Risks of Overheating

Fewer Doubts About US Economic Acceleration … Fears of Monetary Tightening Likely to Intensify

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>First, the global environment for Asian assets is growing more hostile and it can only get worse as the Fed tightens further and the ECB lines up to be next. This means that pricing of risk will become more rigorous and risk assessed more clinically.</li><li>Second, geo-political and other risks that are difficult to price or quantify are growing. This includes the travails in the Middle East, the unsustainable – we think – diminution of risks on the Korean peninsula and the rising threat of a full-blown trade war.</li><li>So far, EMs in Asia has been relatively insulated from this risk recalibration. But should one or more of the following happen – an unexpected weakening in China, geo-political risks or trade war risks escalate well beyond expectations, or an Asian economy perceived to be well-managed commits a policy error which undermines investor confidence – Asia might be at risk of contagion.</li></ul>

First, the global environment for Asian assets is growing more hostile and it can only get worse as the Fed tightens further and the ECB lines up to be next. This means that pricing of risk will become more rigorous and risk assessed more clinically.Second, geo-political and other risks that are difficult to price or quantify are growing. This includes the travails in the Middle East, the unsustainable – we think – diminution of risks on the Korean peninsula and the rising threat of a full-blown trade war.So far, EMs in Asia has been relatively insulated from this risk recalibration. But should one or more of the following happen – an unexpected weakening in China, geo-political risks or trade war risks escalate well beyond expectations, or an Asian economy perceived to be well-managed commits a policy error which undermines investor confidence – Asia might be at risk of contagion.

Tightening Liquidity Hurts Emerging Markets: Will Contagion Spread to Asia?