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Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Despite the June rally in crude, our text-mined inflation indicators hit record momentum readings in May and decelerated notably since</li>
<li>Much like breakevens, our indicators have moved in greater sympathy/correlation with lumber than crude recently</li>
<li>Labor shortages remain an overhang and potential driver of wage inflation, but coverage of the topic has lost momentum in recent weeks</li>
<li>Text-mined inflation indicators (and breakevens) have been strongly correlated with our Cyclicals vs. Defensives Diffusion indicator; while relative cyclical sentiment has broken down, short-term data suggests the underperformance of cyclicals may be short-lived</li>
<li>Despite deceleration from extreme levels, sequential momentum in our inflation indicators remains positive; breakevens have already narrowed significantly to reflect "transitory" views, only to be challenged by the recent FOMC</li>
<li>While our text-mined indicators reflect the visible pullback in non-energy commodities in recent weeks, we acknowledge the high likelihood of sustained service inflation (in lodging and airfares, for example) in the coming months as well as first signs of acceleration in Owners' Equivalent Rent seen in the May CPI</li>
<li>Even as some supply chain disruptions have eased, imminent passing of an infrastructure bill and a -30bps narrowing in 5yr TIPS breakevens suggest inflation expectations are at risk of resurgence together with the cyclical/value factor following FOMC turmoil</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Despite the June rally in crude, our text-mined inflation indicators hit record momentum readings in May and decelerated notably since
Much like breakevens, our indicators have moved in greater sympathy/correlation with lumber than crude recently
Labor shortages remain an overhang and potential driver of wage inflation, but coverage of the topic has lost momentum in recent weeks
Text-mined inflation indicators (and breakevens) have been strongly correlated with our Cyclicals vs. Defensives Diffusion indicator; while relative cyclical sentiment has broken down, short-term data suggests the underperformance of cyclicals may be short-lived
Despite deceleration from extreme levels, sequential momentum in our inflation indicators remains positive; breakevens have already narrowed significantly to reflect "transitory" views, only to be challenged by the recent FOMC
While our text-mined indicators reflect the visible pullback in non-energy commodities in recent weeks, we acknowledge the high likelihood of sustained service inflation (in lodging and airfares, for example) in the coming months as well as first signs of acceleration in Owners' Equivalent Rent seen in the May CPI
Even as some supply chain disruptions have eased, imminent passing of an infrastructure bill and a -30bps narrowing in 5yr TIPS breakevens suggest inflation expectations are at risk of resurgence together with the cyclical/value factor following FOMC turmoil
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Text-Mined Inflation Indicators Peaked in May, But Odds of Resurgence Are High