Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After dropping by half, Tokyo Electron's share price has bounced. But it is still vulnerable to cutbacks in AI-related investments and tariff-induced recession.</li>
<li>A positive scenario has net profit rising by 8% in FY Mar-26. In a negative scenario, it drops by 25%. We take the positive view.</li>
<li>Innovations in manufacturing point toward a big step up in profit margins by the end of the decade. But watch out for a cyclical downturn between now and then.</li>
</ul>


After dropping by half, Tokyo Electron's share price has bounced. But it is still vulnerable to cutbacks in AI-related investments and tariff-induced recession.
A positive scenario has net profit rising by 8% in FY Mar-26. In a negative scenario, it drops by 25%. We take the positive view.
Innovations in manufacturing point toward a big step up in profit margins by the end of the decade. But watch out for a cyclical downturn between now and then.


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Buy if You're Not Afraid of Recession