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Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Guidance for 1H of FY Mar-24 should be easy to beat. The sharp rebound that management is forecasting for 2H is open to question. </li>
<li>TSMC and Micron plan long-term expansion in Japan and Rapidus will be a new customer. But exports to China - the company's largest market - will be restricted.</li>
<li>The share price has spiked, but uncertainty is high, visibility is low and valuations are not compelling.Management's MAGIC medium-term targets look like ... magic. </li>
</ul>


Guidance for 1H of FY Mar-24 should be easy to beat. The sharp rebound that management is forecasting for 2H is open to question. 
TSMC and Micron plan long-term expansion in Japan and Rapidus will be a new customer. But exports to China - the company's largest market - will be restricted.
The share price has spiked, but uncertainty is high, visibility is low and valuations are not compelling.Management's MAGIC medium-term targets look like ... magic. 


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Dubious Guidance