Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): The Correction Did Our Work — Upgrade to BULLISH on the AI Re-Acceleration

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Near-Monopoly coater/developer share, 29.6% ROE, zero debt — but FY2026 profit quality is weak and have yet to see the earnings uplift.</li>
<li>H1 FY2027 guided +33% revenue on 2nm, HBM and packaging demand, but management withheld full-year guidance and China, 34% of FY2026 sales, is rolling over.</li>
<li>Initiate NEUTRAL, PT ¥73,000 — 50x FY2027E EPS of ¥1,465, -3.1% downside. Own the franchise, not this multiple; reassess below ¥62,000 or on the October guide.</li>
</ul>


Near-Monopoly coater/developer share, 29.6% ROE, zero debt — but FY2026 profit quality is weak and have yet to see the earnings uplift.
H1 FY2027 guided +33% revenue on 2nm, HBM and packaging demand, but management withheld full-year guidance and China, 34% of FY2026 sales, is rolling over.
Initiate NEUTRAL, PT ¥73,000 — 50x FY2027E EPS of ¥1,465, -3.1% downside. Own the franchise, not this multiple; reassess below ¥62,000 or on the October guide.


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) - Initiate with a Neutral: Priced For A Year It Hasn't Booked Yet