Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Toshiba TOPIX Inclusion - Weak Excess Volume So Far

Toshiba Finally Gets Into TOPIX but Beware the Baku  (It's Complicated)

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>The initial Toshiba Next Plan released on 8 Nov 2018 targeted ¥240bn in OP in FY03/22 on ¥3.7trn in revenue. At the time we said it looked rational but would not be trivial to achieve. Last year as the pandemic was unleashed Toshiba came up with “core” OP targets which we felt was a rather disingenuous marketing effort. On this “core” basis, Toshiba targets ¥260-280bn in OP next FY which on the surface is an upgrade vs. the initial plan. After examining segmental trends in detail, we have come to believe that Toshiba will miss its original revenue target but could in fact beat the original OP target which we think is a commendable effort.</p>

The initial Toshiba Next Plan released on 8 Nov 2018 targeted ¥240bn in OP in FY03/22 on ¥3.7trn in revenue. At the time we said it looked rational but would not be trivial to achieve. Last year as the pandemic was unleashed Toshiba came up with “core” OP targets which we felt was a rather disingenuous marketing effort. On this “core” basis, Toshiba targets ¥260-280bn in OP next FY which on the surface is an upgrade vs. the initial plan. After examining segmental trends in detail, we have come to believe that Toshiba will miss its original revenue target but could in fact beat the original OP target which we think is a commendable effort.

Toshiba – After Crunching the Numbers We Believe Guidance Could Be Punchy

Toshiba Corp

Toshiba – After Crunching the Numbers We Believe Guidance Could Be Punchy