Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Toyota – Feb Production Numbers Suggest The Corner Has Been Turned

Toyota – In-Line 3Q Sets Up Strong 4Q Beat

Toyota – Quick Wage Negotiation Agreement Means Something

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toyota results were weak missing by 2.9% and OP by 8.5% due to weak volumes, material costs and some evidence of pulling forward costs. </li>
<li>Guidance was for a sharp YoY decline from ¥3trn in OP to just ¥2.4trn but this assumes limited price hikes and ¥115/$ so… who cares? </li>
<li>We expect the weak yen, rising hybrid penetration and volume recovery to drive OP into the ¥3.6-4.0trn range.</li>
</ul>


Toyota results were weak missing by 2.9% and OP by 8.5% due to weak volumes, material costs and some evidence of pulling forward costs. 
Guidance was for a sharp YoY decline from ¥3trn in OP to just ¥2.4trn but this assumes limited price hikes and ¥115/$ so… who cares? 
We expect the weak yen, rising hybrid penetration and volume recovery to drive OP into the ¥3.6-4.0trn range.


Toyota – Guidance Meaningless With A ¥115 Assumption

Toyota Motor

Toyota – Guidance Meaningless With A ¥115 Assumption