Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Honda Motor (7267 JP / HMC US): Caught Between China’s EV Rise and America’s Protectionism

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Amid Profit Collapse: Current Rebound Has No Legs

Subaru (7270 JP) Vs Honda (7267 JP): Auto Peers Drift Apart

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY2026 earnings missed expectations as tariffs, rising costs, and weak North America profitability offset solid vehicle demand and hybrid sales growth.</li>
<li>Management’s FY2027 guidance implies a third straight year of profit decline, signalling Toyota is entering a costly but necessary phase of structural transformation.</li>
<li>Toyota's challenges are huge, and many are beyond its measure of control. Risk/reward is unattractive. Our FV is ¥2,400 (+1F PE of 13x, +1SD mean). AVOID. </li>
</ul>


FY2026 earnings missed expectations as tariffs, rising costs, and weak North America profitability offset solid vehicle demand and hybrid sales growth.
Management’s FY2027 guidance implies a third straight year of profit decline, signalling Toyota is entering a costly but necessary phase of structural transformation.
Toyota's challenges are huge, and many are beyond its measure of control. Risk/reward is unattractive. Our FV is ¥2,400 (+1F PE of 13x, +1SD mean). AVOID. 


Toyota Motor (7203 JP) FY2026 Results: Below as US Tariff Bites, Iranian War & Chinese Auto Woes