Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Being invited, I joined Sellside, i.e. JPMorgan, Nomura and Macquarie, totally around 9-10 years. Before that, I joined International Data Corp (https://www.idc.com/) to be the Asia Semiconductor analyst for nearly 2 years, and being invited to do personal lectures in TSMC, UMC, Samsung and etc. In my working experiences, I also had the chance to join Taiwanese panel company, AUO (2409.TT) and the buyside, Chinalife (2823.TT), totally for over 1 year.
I obtained MS degree from the Tsing-Hua University. Then I worked in the Taiwan Semiconductor companies for around 11 years. I had several US patents during my stay in the Semiconductor industry.

Being worked in the sellside and buyside, I deeply dived in the Greater China Semiconductor industry and directly covered some companies, like TSMC (2330.TT, TSM.US), UMC (2303.TT, UMC.US), Vanguard (5347.TT), ASE (3711.TT, ASX.US), SPIL (merged with ASE and delisted), KYEC ( 2449.TT), JCET (600584.CH), ASMPT (522.HK), GWC (6488.TT), WinSemi (3105.TT), Mediatek (2454.TT), Silergy (6415.TT), Novatek (3034.TT), Guoxin Micro (002049.CH) etc.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Beat Drives Spread Surge; UMC Sharp Headroom Decline

TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook AFTER January Earnings

Taiwan Tech Weekly: US-Taiwan Trade Deal Cognitive Warfare; HonPrecision Listing; TSMC Upgrades

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2026 Growth >20%; N3/N2 Capacity & Yield; Main Clients’ Focus.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Retired Sr. VP Joins Intel; U.S. Fab Impact; Arizona Earnings Decline.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is It Possible TSMC' Output Reach a 50:50 Ratio Between the U.S. And Taiwan?

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>1Q26 Outlook:  A. Revenue: 34.6-35.8B (+4% QoQ / +38% YoY)  B. FX: 31.6  C. GM: 63-65%  D. OPM: 54-56%  </li>
<li>Overall UTR to increase slightly; N3 GM to exceed company average at some point this year.  2nm to start diluting GM in 2H26.</li>
<li>Don’t know if semiconductor cycle can sustain 3-5 years, but AI will continue for several years.</li>
</ul>


1Q26 Outlook:  A. Revenue: 34.6-35.8B (+4% QoQ / +38% YoY)  B. FX: 31.6  C. GM: 63-65%  D. OPM: 54-56%  
Overall UTR to increase slightly; N3 GM to exceed company average at some point this year.  2nm to start diluting GM in 2H26.
Don’t know if semiconductor cycle can sustain 3-5 years, but AI will continue for several years.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2026: ~30% YoY Growth Amid Geopolitical & Demand Risks