Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

TSMC (2330 TW): 3Q26 Preview – The Beat Is Known and Priced; Margin and the Q4 Guide Decide 15 Oct

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>3Q26 EPS of NT$29.43 beat the Street by 3%. Gross margin of 66.4% missed our 67.0% on the N2 ramp, now 8% of wafer revenue.</li>
<li>The 4Q guide is the story: US$52.3–54.3bn, +14% QoQ, FY26 growth ~44%. It clears our US$51bn bull trigger by 4.5%, with capex held.</li>
<li>Maintain BULLISH, FV NT$3,450/US$545 held, upward bias. All AI stocks are in free-fall, no exceptions. Add in Taipei (+41% to FV), not the ADR (+27%).</li>
</ul>


3Q26 EPS of NT$29.43 beat the Street by 3%. Gross margin of 66.4% missed our 67.0% on the N2 ramp, now 8% of wafer revenue.
The 4Q guide is the story: US$52.3–54.3bn, +14% QoQ, FY26 growth ~44%. It clears our US$51bn bull trigger by 4.5%, with capex held.
Maintain BULLISH, FV NT$3,450/US$545 held, upward bias. All AI stocks are in free-fall, no exceptions. Add in Taipei (+41% to FV), not the ADR (+27%).


TSMC (2330 TW) 3Q26 Results: EPS +3% Vs Street, 4Q Guide Clears Our Bull Trigger by 4.5%