Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise

TSMC Q225. Surfing The AI Tidal Wave With Style

TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook Post Strong Q2: Our Model Says "EXTREME OVERBOUGHT CONDITION"

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

TSMC June Revenue Down 17.7% Mom. What Gives?

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>NT$ appreciation large impact on revenue / margins but TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance is in-line. FX impact is partially neutralize by other factors (utilization, cost control) .</li>
<li>This will be controversial: management increase 2025 US$-revenue growth from mid-20 to 30%. Yet, this implies that 4Q25 US$-revenue growth will collapse to 9% YoY and NT$-growth will be negative.</li>
<li>At same time, mngt gives a long list of very positive messages on AI demand, N2 ramp, full utilization of EUV nodes.  This could lead to short-term stock price weakness.</li>
</ul>


NT$ appreciation large impact on revenue / margins but TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance is in-line. FX impact is partially neutralize by other factors (utilization, cost control) .
This will be controversial: management increase 2025 US$-revenue growth from mid-20 to 30%. Yet, this implies that 4Q25 US$-revenue growth will collapse to 9% YoY and NT$-growth will be negative.
At same time, mngt gives a long list of very positive messages on AI demand, N2 ramp, full utilization of EUV nodes.  This could lead to short-term stock price weakness.


TSMC 2Q25: A Number of Very Positive Messages, Plus a Major Contradiction on 4Q25 Revenue