Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

TSMC: Revising up – a Lot. Quick Notes on TSMC Before a Long Report.

TSMC Q425. CEO "Very Nervous" About An AI Bubble? Yes But...

TSMC: Consensus Revised Up, but Modestly. Stock at Reasonable Valuations

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC reports on Thursday 15 Jan. 4Q25 revenues are inline. We’re not gonna get a 2026 guidance. This usually comes with 1Q reporting, ie mid-April ‘26.</li>
<li>Growth is slowing down from ~45% in 2Q25 to ~20% in 4Q25 - 2Q26, before re-accelerating to 30% in 2H26. Bottom of the growth cycle at 20% YoY isn’t bad.</li>
<li>Capacity for AI accelerators (GPU and ASICs) will increase by ~80% in 2026: Nvidia ~60% growth, Broadcom up 150%, AMD 100%. Consensus is not high. Valuations not high.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reports on Thursday 15 Jan. 4Q25 revenues are inline. We’re not gonna get a 2026 guidance. This usually comes with 1Q reporting, ie mid-April ‘26.
Growth is slowing down from ~45% in 2Q25 to ~20% in 4Q25 - 2Q26, before re-accelerating to 30% in 2H26. Bottom of the growth cycle at 20% YoY isn’t bad.
Capacity for AI accelerators (GPU and ASICs) will increase by ~80% in 2026: Nvidia ~60% growth, Broadcom up 150%, AMD 100%. Consensus is not high. Valuations not high.


TSMC: Be Patient Beyond the 1H26 Revenue Slowdown