Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Results Ahead; Nvidia & TSMC Partner for Silicon Photonics Technology

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level

Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say.

TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 & Q125 Look Ahead

NVIDIA's >5x YoY "Singapore" Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.</li>
<li>2025 revenue up mid-20%. AI revenues will double or more depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues). 2025 Capex US$40bn, from 2024 30bn. </li>
<li>The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus EPS.  This is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.
2025 revenue up mid-20%. AI revenues will double or more depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues). 2025 Capex US$40bn, from 2024 30bn. 
The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus EPS.  This is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.


TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.