Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Highly experienced ex-Delta One trader with 17 years of experience trading arbitrage and related strategies across Asian markets.

Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd.

It is important to note that the information provided by Periscope Analytics is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and synthesized from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions.

All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include, but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, ETF and other passive investment vehicle holdings, and free float and volume data from third-party data providers. Periscope Analytics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates and/or other information.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> acquires <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> in just over 4 weeks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>'s tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> could commence in December/January.</li>
<li>The enlarged <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.</li>
</ul>



Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)'s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.


Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In