Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK GDP Suffering from Supply Shock

FLASH: UK PMI Partially Rebounds Above Manufacturing

UK Activity: Soft Labour Market Explains Wages

BoE: Hiking Rates Early (Call Change to May-18)

FLASH: Q1 UK GDP Growth Trimmed and Reprofiled

BoE: Silvana Tenreyro Has Some Dovish Form

BoE: Hawkish 3D Trade-Off Raises Rate Hike Risk

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

- The ONS’s third estimate of Q1 UK GDP growth was unrevised at 0.2% q-o-q, as expected, albeit not yet delivering the upgrade that the BoE pencilled in.- Service sector growth of 0.2% m-o-m in April matched my forecast and points to it growing by 0.5% in Q2. My 0.4% GDP growth forecast is on the cusp of rounding to 0.3%, which would disappoint the BoE and help discourage a rate hike in August.- Real incomes per employee declined again in Q1, but overall resources increased amid higher…

- The ONS’s third estimate of Q1 UK GDP growth was unrevised at 0.2% q-o-q, as expected, albeit not yet delivering the upgrade that the BoE pencilled in.- Service sector growth of 0.2% m-o-m in April matched my forecast and points to it growing by 0.5% in Q2. My 0.4% GDP growth forecast is on the cusp of rounding to 0.3%, which would disappoint the BoE and help discourage a rate hike in August.- Real incomes per employee declined again in Q1, but overall resources increased amid higher…

UK Activity: Soft but Stable Outlook