UK CPI Stickier For Longer

709 Views17 Sep 2025 17:15

SUMMARY

UK inflation data confirmed the substantial upwards drift in the consensus, worth 0.6pp since May and 1.1pp over the past year, while matching final forecasts for August.
The consensus has shifted further than usual over the past month. It now aligns with our hawkish forecast until April, when hope again dominates in dragging inflation down.
Although the MPC won’t be shocked by this outcome, the persistent excess in underlying inflation still seems set to keep it holding rates. We do not expect cuts to resume.

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