Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK inflation data confirmed the substantial upwards drift in the consensus, worth 0.6pp since May and 1.1pp over the past year, while matching final forecasts for August. </li><li>The consensus has shifted further than usual over the past month. It now aligns with our hawkish forecast until April, when hope again dominates in dragging inflation down.</li><li>Although the MPC won’t be shocked by this outcome, the persistent excess in underlying inflation still seems set to keep it holding rates. We do not expect cuts to resume.</li></ul><p></p>

UK inflation data confirmed the substantial upwards drift in the consensus, worth 0.6pp since May and 1.1pp over the past year, while matching final forecasts for August. The consensus has shifted further than usual over the past month. It now aligns with our hawkish forecast until April, when hope again dominates in dragging inflation down.Although the MPC won’t be shocked by this outcome, the persistent excess in underlying inflation still seems set to keep it holding rates. We do not expect cuts to resume.

UK CPI Stickier For Longer