Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A third downside inflation surprise to the consensus matched us but split hairs from 2.646%. It will also be a temporary trough as energy optimism was invalidated.</li>
<li>Netting energy utility price falls, petrol price rises, and food price stability aligns with our pre-war forecast but is ~0.3pp above the consensus amid underlying strength.</li>
<li>Cost passthrough to food, airfares, etc will occur later, while resurgent energy prices are raising the postponed peak in 2027. We still expect a BoE rate hike in September.</li>
</ul>


A third downside inflation surprise to the consensus matched us but split hairs from 2.646%. It will also be a temporary trough as energy optimism was invalidated.
Netting energy utility price falls, petrol price rises, and food price stability aligns with our pre-war forecast but is ~0.3pp above the consensus amid underlying strength.
Cost passthrough to food, airfares, etc will occur later, while resurgent energy prices are raising the postponed peak in 2027. We still expect a BoE rate hike in September.


UK: Frontloaded Disinflation