Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Fundamental causes should not be assigned to UK GDP surging far beyond consensus expectations again in February, despite the notability of Q1 growth tracking 0.7% q-o-q.</li><li>Residual seasonality has dominated the post-pandemic growth profile, and the recent resilience merely matches it. Stagnation for the rest of the year is the consequence.</li><li>Disruptive and volatile US trade policy will also depress the underlying economic trend beneath the spurious seasonals. We now bake both more fully into our modal forecasts.</li></ul><p></p>

Fundamental causes should not be assigned to UK GDP surging far beyond consensus expectations again in February, despite the notability of Q1 growth tracking 0.7% q-o-q.Residual seasonality has dominated the post-pandemic growth profile, and the recent resilience merely matches it. Stagnation for the rest of the year is the consequence.Disruptive and volatile US trade policy will also depress the underlying economic trend beneath the spurious seasonals. We now bake both more fully into our modal forecasts.

UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing