Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Covid-Costs Passed to Consumers in Jul-20

UK: Inflated June to Be Crushed by Methodology

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>Inflation rebounded in September to 0.53% y-o-y on the CPI and 1.13% on the RPI, consistent with the headline Consensus, but disappointing my forecast. Food caused much of the difference, partly because of methodology on the restaurant side.</em></li>
<li><em>With more of the August decline now appearing to be VAT-related, my m-o-m forecast for April-20 is revised up, but the annual rate remains broadly lower, especially in the interim. These data are unlikely to affect the MPC’s forthcoming policy easing decision.</em></li>
</ul>


Inflation rebounded in September to 0.53% y-o-y on the CPI and 1.13% on the RPI, consistent with the headline Consensus, but disappointing my forecast. Food caused much of the difference, partly because of methodology on the restaurant side.
With more of the August decline now appearing to be VAT-related, my m-o-m forecast for April-20 is revised up, but the annual rate remains broadly lower, especially in the interim. These data are unlikely to affect the MPC’s forthcoming policy easing decision.


UK: Inflation Rebound Stunted in Sep-20