ECB Holds the Line Against Errant Pricing

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The UK’s inflationary pressure has returned in Oct-21 after a brief lull. Administered shocks drove most of the move, but our surprise mainly was in furniture and transport. </li>
<li>Underlying inflation metrics surprised us by another 0.1pp, reinforcing the 2022 excess but indicating less persistent pressures than a decade ago. </li>
<li>Spot inflation is less relevant to the BoE than the medium-term outlook, signalled by labour market developments.</li>
</ul>


The UK’s inflationary pressure has returned in Oct-21 after a brief lull. Administered shocks drove most of the move, but our surprise mainly was in furniture and transport. 
Underlying inflation metrics surprised us by another 0.1pp, reinforcing the 2022 excess but indicating less persistent pressures than a decade ago. 
Spot inflation is less relevant to the BoE than the medium-term outlook, signalled by labour market developments.


UK: Inflationary Shock Shipped-In Again