Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Unemployment disappointed consensus expectations but matched our forecast of 4.8% in May-21. Bullish biases from lockdown surveys and support schemes are unwinding. We still expect the former to drive a slight rise to 4.9% in June.</li>
<li>About 10% of employees either remain out of work or on furlough, with ~3pp of those on part-time furlough where usage has been sticky and clogging up clearing in the labour market. Rapid headline wage growth is mostly about base and mix effects, though.</li>
<li>Residual restrictions are reinforcing behavioural changes that spread activity differently to pre-covid and the reallocation of resources between sectors, companies and areas should cause frictional weakness. We still forecast a UR peak of 6% in Q4.</li>
</ul>


Unemployment disappointed consensus expectations but matched our forecast of 4.8% in May-21. Bullish biases from lockdown surveys and support schemes are unwinding. We still expect the former to drive a slight rise to 4.9% in June.
About 10% of employees either remain out of work or on furlough, with ~3pp of those on part-time furlough where usage has been sticky and clogging up clearing in the labour market. Rapid headline wage growth is mostly about base and mix effects, though.
Residual restrictions are reinforcing behavioural changes that spread activity differently to pre-covid and the reallocation of resources between sectors, companies and areas should cause frictional weakness. We still forecast a UR peak of 6% in Q4.


UK: Jobs and UR Distortions Unwinding