Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK payroll revisions removed most of May’s weakness, while wage and price inflation is too fast, yet the BoE probably won’t back down from an August cut as the UR rises.</li><li>Fewer payroll inflows explain its downtrend, with &lt;24yo suffering sustained pain, but the 25-64yo endure the taxation hit, structurally raising unemployment by ~0.5pp.</li><li>Wage growth isn’t showing signs of new disinflationary demand pressures, so we expect excessive underlying wage and price trends to persist, not helped by an August BoE cut.</li></ul><p></p>

UK payroll revisions removed most of May’s weakness, while wage and price inflation is too fast, yet the BoE probably won’t back down from an August cut as the UR rises.Fewer payroll inflows explain its downtrend, with &lt;24yo suffering sustained pain, but the 25-64yo endure the taxation hit, structurally raising unemployment by ~0.5pp.Wage growth isn’t showing signs of new disinflationary demand pressures, so we expect excessive underlying wage and price trends to persist, not helped by an August BoE cut.

UK Jobs Data And The Muddled MPC