Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A supermarket price war hit food prices, slowing UK CPI inflation below the headline consensus again. Upside news in clothing was offset by downside in game prices.</li><li>Repeating 2008’s experience would drive a game price rebound, but the food effect is more likely to persist. The median inflationary impulse should also rebound soon.</li><li>Unit wage costs remain inconsistent with the target, while energy and water utility bills will drive a massive jump in April. We still forecast a final 25bp BoE rate cut in May.</li></ul><p></p>

A supermarket price war hit food prices, slowing UK CPI inflation below the headline consensus again. Upside news in clothing was offset by downside in game prices.Repeating 2008’s experience would drive a game price rebound, but the food effect is more likely to persist. The median inflationary impulse should also rebound soon.Unit wage costs remain inconsistent with the target, while energy and water utility bills will drive a massive jump in April. We still forecast a final 25bp BoE rate cut in May.

UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation