Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Retail Rebounds to Still-Bleak Trends

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The hangover from Prime Day deepened to mourning in September as the UK returned to something akin to lockdown with widespread closures for the Queen’s funeral.</li>
<li>A worse crash cut another tenth from our Sep-22 GDP forecast to -0.4% m-o-m but leaves Q3 at -0.5% q-o-q in our below-consensus call. October should rebound more.</li>
<li>Housing market pains may be the next blow to consumers after surging inflation and rates, as its sharp slowdown looks like a stalling that could easily roll into a crash.</li>
</ul>


The hangover from Prime Day deepened to mourning in September as the UK returned to something akin to lockdown with widespread closures for the Queen’s funeral.
A worse crash cut another tenth from our Sep-22 GDP forecast to -0.4% m-o-m but leaves Q3 at -0.5% q-o-q in our below-consensus call. October should rebound more.
Housing market pains may be the next blow to consumers after surging inflation and rates, as its sharp slowdown looks like a stalling that could easily roll into a crash.


UK: Retail Mourns Funeral with Closures