Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Bullish Trends Beneath Bias After Brexit

UK: Consumers Spending Salary but Losing PPI

UK: Retail Sales Not Damped by Jun-19 Rains

Brexit: Shock Simulations for No Deal Scenario

Brexit: No Deal Risk Reaches Record Highs

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>UK retail sales grew by 0.6% q-o-q again in 3Q19, which maintains the bullish trend since 2016. Real wage growth is fully supporting the rise. Consumers are confident in their personal situation, despite broader concerns that surveys exaggerate.</em></li>
<li><em>Real wages and consumption will be sensitive to the Brexit outcome. If parliament passes the deal, both will be supported, and hawkish pressures can build again.</em></li>
</ul>


UK retail sales grew by 0.6% q-o-q again in 3Q19, which maintains the bullish trend since 2016. Real wage growth is fully supporting the rise. Consumers are confident in their personal situation, despite broader concerns that surveys exaggerate.
Real wages and consumption will be sensitive to the Brexit outcome. If parliament passes the deal, both will be supported, and hawkish pressures can build again.


UK: Retail Sales Resilient with Real Wages in 3Q19