Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Residual seasonality shocked the consensus again, this time on the downside, as the spurious surge is replaced with stagnation for the rest of the year in our view.</li><li>The 0.3% m-o-m decline dragged GDP back toward its trend, wiping out the highly supportive statistical carryover effect for Q2, which we now forecast at 0.1% q-o-q.</li><li>BoE forecasts are on track, allowing the MPC’s bias to slow easing to materialise with a pause. We expect cuts to keep being rolled later, with no more delivered in this cycle.</li></ul><p></p>

Residual seasonality shocked the consensus again, this time on the downside, as the spurious surge is replaced with stagnation for the rest of the year in our view.The 0.3% m-o-m decline dragged GDP back toward its trend, wiping out the highly supportive statistical carryover effect for Q2, which we now forecast at 0.1% q-o-q.BoE forecasts are on track, allowing the MPC’s bias to slow easing to materialise with a pause. We expect cuts to keep being rolled later, with no more delivered in this cycle.

UK: Retreating To Trend Again