Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK GDP disappointed in Q3 at 0.1% q-o-q after the ONS revised away August’s surprise resilience and led it into a slight September fall, setting up for a soft Q4 too.</li><li>Residual seasonality in service sector growth has reasserted itself on the average post-pandemic path. So statistical stories seem more plausible than fundamental ones.</li><li>Weakness in labour market activity is more relevant. The hawkish half of the MPC probably needs disinflationary news to support a cut, but the Governor seems swayed.</li></ul><p></p>

UK GDP disappointed in Q3 at 0.1% q-o-q after the ONS revised away August’s surprise resilience and led it into a slight September fall, setting up for a soft Q4 too.Residual seasonality in service sector growth has reasserted itself on the average post-pandemic path. So statistical stories seem more plausible than fundamental ones.Weakness in labour market activity is more relevant. The hawkish half of the MPC probably needs disinflationary news to support a cut, but the Governor seems swayed.

UK: Return To Residual H2 Gloom