Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Mar-20 Sales Reveal Sectoral Level Hits

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>The UK services PMI crashed 18.7 points to 34.5, which was 1.2-points below the flash as costs mounted. That implies a 4% quarterly fall in output, although the unprecedented cause of the shock may invalidate conventional tracking.</em></li>
<li><em>As policy prevented increasing amount of economic activity through March, more of the pain should be felt in April and Q2 overall. I still expect a rebound from June as activities become permitted again, although the level is permanently hit.</em></li>
</ul>


The UK services PMI crashed 18.7 points to 34.5, which was 1.2-points below the flash as costs mounted. That implies a 4% quarterly fall in output, although the unprecedented cause of the shock may invalidate conventional tracking.
As policy prevented increasing amount of economic activity through March, more of the pain should be felt in April and Q2 overall. I still expect a rebound from June as activities become permitted again, although the level is permanently hit.


UK: Services Smashed by Mar-20 Shutdown