Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>GDP’s resurgence caught the consensus off guard, as it failed to recognise the residual seasonality still skewing activity growth into the first half of the year.</li><li>The 0.7% q-o-q outcome for Q1 matched our forecast and leaves a powerful carry-over to Q2, where GDP seems set to exceed the BoE’s 0.1% forecast at about 0.4% q-o-q. </li><li>Strength discourages another policy rate cut. Disappointment in H2 is the hangover, but we doubt it will motivate renewed easing amid excessive price and wage inflation.</li></ul><p></p>

GDP’s resurgence caught the consensus off guard, as it failed to recognise the residual seasonality still skewing activity growth into the first half of the year.The 0.7% q-o-q outcome for Q1 matched our forecast and leaves a powerful carry-over to Q2, where GDP seems set to exceed the BoE’s 0.1% forecast at about 0.4% q-o-q. Strength discourages another policy rate cut. Disappointment in H2 is the hangover, but we doubt it will motivate renewed easing amid excessive price and wage inflation.

UK: Spurious H1 Surge Again