Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Higher employment taxes can entirely explain the fall in payrolls as the tax wedge hits its highest since 1987, raising our structural unemployment rate estimate by 0.48pp.</li><li>That could understate the structural shift amid a substantial drop in the threshold, rise in the minimum wage (jobs ban) and benefit rates. Some will go ‘inactive’ on disability.</li><li>The unemployment rate must rise more than its natural rate to deliver disinflationary pressure sustainably. Our structural estimates suggest it won’t break excess inflation.</li></ul><p></p>

Higher employment taxes can entirely explain the fall in payrolls as the tax wedge hits its highest since 1987, raising our structural unemployment rate estimate by 0.48pp.That could understate the structural shift amid a substantial drop in the threshold, rise in the minimum wage (jobs ban) and benefit rates. Some will go ‘inactive’ on disability.The unemployment rate must rise more than its natural rate to deliver disinflationary pressure sustainably. Our structural estimates suggest it won’t break excess inflation.

UK Structurally Unemployed