UK Structurally Unemployed

587 Views24 Jul 2025 02:45

SUMMARY

Higher employment taxes can entirely explain the fall in payrolls as the tax wedge hits its highest since 1987, raising our structural unemployment rate estimate by 0.48pp.
That could understate the structural shift amid a substantial drop in the threshold, rise in the minimum wage (jobs ban) and benefit rates. Some will go ‘inactive’ on disability.
The unemployment rate must rise more than its natural rate to deliver disinflationary pressure sustainably. Our structural estimates suggest it won’t break excess inflation.

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