Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Vacancies Reveal Risk to Recent Resilience

UK: Jul-19 Surveys Still in Gloomy Ranges

UK: IP Signs Converge on Contraction in 2Q19

UK: GDP Fall Fades Hawkish Bias for Bank Rate

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>The UK services PMI was a slight disappointment in Jun-19 as it dipped by 0.8 to 50.2, which is broadly where it has been for several months. Other surveys are softer.</em></li>
<li><em>Official services data remain less gloomy, as they are less sensitive to uncertainty. The narrow and deep manufacturing shock means the overall signal for GDP growth in 2Q19 from both the surveys and official data is consistent at -0.1% q-o-q.</em></li>
</ul>


The UK services PMI was a slight disappointment in Jun-19 as it dipped by 0.8 to 50.2, which is broadly where it has been for several months. Other surveys are softer.
Official services data remain less gloomy, as they are less sensitive to uncertainty. The narrow and deep manufacturing shock means the overall signal for GDP growth in 2Q19 from both the surveys and official data is consistent at -0.1% q-o-q.


UK: Surveys Support 2Q19 Contraction Call