European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

UniCredit / Commerzbank – From Bid to Activism: Control Without Control

UniCredit / Commerzbank – Control Without Control

UniCredit / Commerzbank: The Offer Failed, the Strategy Succeeded

CBK: Buyback Tightens Float as UniCredit Nears 30% Threshold

UniCredit's Strategic Stake in Commerzbank and Implications for a Takeover

UniCredit/Commerzbank: Comerzbank's CMD, Update on Timeline and Challenges

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>UniCredit’s voluntary exchange offer for Commerzbank implies ~€30.8 per share, ~4% premium, suggesting the transaction is primarily designed to move beyond the 30% takeover threshold rather than secure immediate control.</li>
<li>Strategically, combining Commerzbank with UniCredit’s German subsidiary HVB would create a stronger national franchise and could generate €700m–€1.4bn annual synergies, worth roughly €5–€6 per share on a capitalised basis.</li>
<li>With UniCredit already holding ~30% economic exposure and roughly one third of the effective free float, Commerzbank increasingly trades as a control-option equity story with probability-weighted valuation around €34/share.</li>
</ul>


UniCredit’s voluntary exchange offer for Commerzbank implies ~€30.8 per share, ~4% premium, suggesting the transaction is primarily designed to move beyond the 30% takeover threshold rather than secure immediate control.
Strategically, combining Commerzbank with UniCredit’s German subsidiary HVB would create a stronger national franchise and could generate €700m–€1.4bn annual synergies, worth roughly €5–€6 per share on a capitalised basis.
With UniCredit already holding ~30% economic exposure and roughly one third of the effective free float, Commerzbank increasingly trades as a control-option equity story with probability-weighted valuation around €34/share.


UniCredit/Commerzbank - Crossing 30%: The Creeping Takeover Begins

Commerzbank AG

UniCredit/Commerzbank - Crossing 30%: The Creeping Takeover Begins