European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

UniCredit / Commerzbank – From Bid to Activism: Control Without Control

UniCredit / Commerzbank – Control Without Control

UniCredit / Commerzbank: The Offer Failed, the Strategy Succeeded

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>UniCredit has secured 49.65% of Commerzbank voting rights, while BaFin approval and softer opposition from management and Berlin make a negotiated outcome materially more credible than in July.</li>
<li>Our €43 base case requires no new bid: UniCredit can exert growing influence while Commerzbank remains listed, buy additional shares in the market or press for operational changes.</li>
<li>We raise our probability-weighted TP to €44, with a €48 bull case for an agreed HVB combination; independently estimated cost synergies add approximately €4.4 per Commerzbank share.</li>
</ul>


UniCredit has secured 49.65% of Commerzbank voting rights, while BaFin approval and softer opposition from management and Berlin make a negotiated outcome materially more credible than in July.
Our €43 base case requires no new bid: UniCredit can exert growing influence while Commerzbank remains listed, buy additional shares in the market or press for operational changes.
We raise our probability-weighted TP to €44, with a €48 bull case for an agreed HVB combination; independently estimated cost synergies add approximately €4.4 per Commerzbank share.


UniCredit / Commerzbank: The Endgame Takes Shape

Commerzbank AG

UniCredit / Commerzbank: The Endgame Takes Shape