Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The current US 10-year is close to its 64-year median. The level is normal, but the speed at which it got there is not. </li>
<li>Expect a speed bump toward 5.0-5.1%, but don't expect a U-turn: a US$2tn deficit, AI borrowers and fading foreign demand keep the floor under yields high. </li>
<li>Stay NEUTRAL: scale in below 5.00%, de-risk equities above 5.50%. Stocks' valuation cushion over bonds is gone; earnings must carry the index. </li>
</ul>


The current US 10-year is close to its 64-year median. The level is normal, but the speed at which it got there is not. 
Expect a speed bump toward 5.0-5.1%, but don't expect a U-turn: a US$2tn deficit, AI borrowers and fading foreign demand keep the floor under yields high. 
Stay NEUTRAL: scale in below 5.00%, de-risk equities above 5.50%. Stocks' valuation cushion over bonds is gone; earnings must carry the index. 


US 10-Year Treasury Yields: Back to Its 64-Year Median, Too Fast. Expect a Speed Bump, Not a U-Turn