Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

A Clear Disappointment of U.S. January CPI

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Headline US inflation aligned with the consensus for December, although the core rate was marginally weaker, challenging the prevailing hawkish Fed narrative.</li><li>Expectations have been repeatedly marked higher in recent months, with the outcome exceeding most previous vintages, except those made during Q2 2024.</li><li>Persistently excessive inflation data threatens the Fed’s cutting cycle, although the US economy is not the hawkish outlier often assumed and embedded in market pricing.</li></ul><p></p>

Headline US inflation aligned with the consensus for December, although the core rate was marginally weaker, challenging the prevailing hawkish Fed narrative.Expectations have been repeatedly marked higher in recent months, with the outcome exceeding most previous vintages, except those made during Q2 2024.Persistently excessive inflation data threatens the Fed’s cutting cycle, although the US economy is not the hawkish outlier often assumed and embedded in market pricing.

US CPI Excess No Worse Than Peers