Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.</li><li>First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5.</li><li>ISM Services jumps to &gt;60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago.</li></ul>

Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5.ISM Services jumps to &gt;60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago.

US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks

USD

US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks