US Tariff Impact Estimates

550 Views04 Apr 2025 01:45

SUMMARY

New US tariffs ignored any notion of reciprocity, reaching shockingly substantial sizes. However, the UK was relatively fortunate in landing on the 10% minimum rate.
Repeating 2024’s imports would raise $577bn in tariff revenue, which is worth ~3% of consumption. 70% pass-through to prices would add 2% to the level over 1-2 years.
Negotiations need to conclude rapidly to avoid these front-loaded price rises. The EU’s likely retaliations would magnify its pain, but the US is the biggest stagflationary loser.

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