Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Macau Semiconductors and semiconductor equipment / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Margins are the FX airbag. Memory is 100% dollar-billed but locally costed; at 76–86% margins, earnings are less currency-sensitive than at any point in 20 years.</li>
<li>
The FX dispersion is 20x. Micron sits at −0.15x beta versus Winbond at −3.03x; a 10% dollar decline can erase Samsung’s 42% upside.</li>
<li>
Korean Q3 consensus has not caught the won rally. A 6.1% monthly appreciation implies KRW4.6tn operating drag and c.KRW3tn FX losses for SK Hynix.</li>
</ul>



Margins are the FX airbag. Memory is 100% dollar-billed but locally costed; at 76–86% margins, earnings are less currency-sensitive than at any point in 20 years.

The FX dispersion is 20x. Micron sits at −0.15x beta versus Winbond at −3.03x; a 10% dollar decline can erase Samsung’s 42% upside.

Korean Q3 consensus has not caught the won rally. A 6.1% monthly appreciation implies KRW4.6tn operating drag and c.KRW3tn FX losses for SK Hynix.


US$ Weakness: Ranking the Winners and Losers in Semiconductor Memory