Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High Ahead of 3Q Results; CHT Rare ADR Discount

Semi Revenues Divergence Continues. AI, HPC Growing at ~45%, Everything Legacy in the Slumps.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>USG 1:1 domestic / import ratio for semi manufacturing not a clear positive for Intel. Intel needs a 14A node very quickly. But it’s positive to TSMC, increase pricing power.</li>
<li>The 1:1 rule is potentially positive for Intel and Samsung but only if they fix yield problems and offer complete design and IP tools to their customers. Long road ahead.</li>
<li>TSMC could increase US Capex and lower Taiwan Capex. But TSMC plans to make 30% of its advanced chips in the US from 2027. Capex increase would be mild.</li>
</ul>


USG 1:1 domestic / import ratio for semi manufacturing not a clear positive for Intel. Intel needs a 14A node very quickly. But it’s positive to TSMC, increase pricing power.
The 1:1 rule is potentially positive for Intel and Samsung but only if they fix yield problems and offer complete design and IP tools to their customers. Long road ahead.
TSMC could increase US Capex and lower Taiwan Capex. But TSMC plans to make 30% of its advanced chips in the US from 2027. Capex increase would be mild.


USG 1:1 Rule on Semi Manufacturing: Not a Clear Positive to Intel but Clearly Positive to TSMC