Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Being invited, I joined Sellside, i.e. JPMorgan, Nomura and Macquarie, totally around 9-10 years. Before that, I joined International Data Corp (https://www.idc.com/) to be the Asia Semiconductor analyst for nearly 2 years, and being invited to do personal lectures in TSMC, UMC, Samsung and etc. In my working experiences, I also had the chance to join Taiwanese panel company, AUO (2409.TT) and the buyside, Chinalife (2823.TT), totally for over 1 year.
I obtained MS degree from the Tsing-Hua University. Then I worked in the Taiwan Semiconductor companies for around 11 years. I had several US patents during my stay in the Semiconductor industry.

Being worked in the sellside and buyside, I deeply dived in the Greater China Semiconductor industry and directly covered some companies, like TSMC (2330.TT, TSM.US), UMC (2303.TT, UMC.US), Vanguard (5347.TT), ASE (3711.TT, ASX.US), SPIL (merged with ASE and delisted), KYEC ( 2449.TT), JCET (600584.CH), ASMPT (522.HK), GWC (6488.TT), WinSemi (3105.TT), Mediatek (2454.TT), Silergy (6415.TT), Novatek (3034.TT), Guoxin Micro (002049.CH) etc.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Asking TSMC for More Capacity; Apple to Disintermediate Telcos?

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC and ASE Premiums Near Spead Short Levels

NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Management expects 4Q25 wafer shipments to decline 6–8% QoQ, while ASP should rise 4–6% QoQ, mainly due to lower DDI shipments.</li>
<li>The AI revenue share has risen from a low-single-digit percentage in 2024 to a high-single-digit level in 2025.</li>
<li>The worst phase of mature-node overcapacity has passed, and pricing pressure should ease entering 2026. </li>
</ul>


Management expects 4Q25 wafer shipments to decline 6–8% QoQ, while ASP should rise 4–6% QoQ, mainly due to lower DDI shipments.
The AI revenue share has risen from a low-single-digit percentage in 2024 to a high-single-digit level in 2025.
The worst phase of mature-node overcapacity has passed, and pricing pressure should ease entering 2026. 


Vanguard (5347.TT): 3Q25 EPS Missed Expectations; 4Q25 and 1Q26 Decline Milder Than Seasonal Trend