Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Being invited, I joined Sellside, i.e. JPMorgan, Nomura and Macquarie, totally around 9-10 years. Before that, I joined International Data Corp (https://www.idc.com/) to be the Asia Semiconductor analyst for nearly 2 years, and being invited to do personal lectures in TSMC, UMC, Samsung and etc. In my working experiences, I also had the chance to join Taiwanese panel company, AUO (2409.TT) and the buyside, Chinalife (2823.TT), totally for over 1 year.
I obtained MS degree from the Tsing-Hua University. Then I worked in the Taiwan Semiconductor companies for around 11 years. I had several US patents during my stay in the Semiconductor industry.

Being worked in the sellside and buyside, I deeply dived in the Greater China Semiconductor industry and directly covered some companies, like TSMC (2330.TT, TSM.US), UMC (2303.TT, UMC.US), Vanguard (5347.TT), ASE (3711.TT, ASX.US), SPIL (merged with ASE and delisted), KYEC ( 2449.TT), JCET (600584.CH), ASMPT (522.HK), GWC (6488.TT), WinSemi (3105.TT), Mediatek (2454.TT), Silergy (6415.TT), Novatek (3034.TT), Guoxin Micro (002049.CH) etc.

Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q25 Outlook Could See a Flat QoQ; Shipments for DDIC and PMIC Are Increasing.

Vanguard (5347.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Is a Bit Better, but Investment in EPISIL Isn't a near Term Payback

Vanguard (5347.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Is Lower than Consensus; DDIC Is Declining.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q25 Shipment estimates are up 8-10%. The ASP is expected to decrease by 4-6% QoQ and the gross margin. GM is projected to be 29-31%, showing a 1.3% increase QoQ. </li>
<li>The worldwide inventory level is currently healthy. Automotive inventory levels are improving, and Vanguard anticipates moderate growth in the semiconductor industry for 2025.</li>
<li>VSMC's construction will proceed according to the current plan. The project is currently slightly ahead of schedule. Sampling is planned for 2026, with mass production expected to begin in 2027.</li>
</ul>


1Q25 Shipment estimates are up 8-10%. The ASP is expected to decrease by 4-6% QoQ and the gross margin. GM is projected to be 29-31%, showing a 1.3% increase QoQ. 
The worldwide inventory level is currently healthy. Automotive inventory levels are improving, and Vanguard anticipates moderate growth in the semiconductor industry for 2025.
VSMC's construction will proceed according to the current plan. The project is currently slightly ahead of schedule. Sampling is planned for 2026, with mass production expected to begin in 2027.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

Vanguard (5347.TT): In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. The Current Inventory Is Healthy.