European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Norwegian Energy Company: Overlooked and Cheap

Norwegian Energy Co (NOR NO): Shell Divests Danish Assets to Noreco for $9/Boe 2P Reserves

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vår's offer values BlueNord at NOK555.6/share (EV NOK23bn), with 86% of the consideration payable in shares, leaving investors exposed to Vår's equity and commodity prices until completion.</li>
<li>Our simplified DCF indicates the agreed terms broadly reflect long-term Brent around US$61/bbl, while the acquisition price equates to only 3.0x annualised Q1 EBITDA and 4.6x near-term free cash flow.</li>
<li>Execution risk appears manageable given unanimous Board support and no financing or due diligence conditions, but the apparent 5% spread overstates pure merger arbitrage because most consideration is equity.</li>
</ul>


Vår's offer values BlueNord at NOK555.6/share (EV NOK23bn), with 86% of the consideration payable in shares, leaving investors exposed to Vår's equity and commodity prices until completion.
Our simplified DCF indicates the agreed terms broadly reflect long-term Brent around US$61/bbl, while the acquisition price equates to only 3.0x annualised Q1 EBITDA and 4.6x near-term free cash flow.
Execution risk appears manageable given unanimous Board support and no financing or due diligence conditions, but the apparent 5% spread overstates pure merger arbitrage because most consideration is equity.


Vår Energi/BlueNord: Beneath the Surface

Bluenord

Vår Energi/BlueNord: Beneath the Surface