Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, New Economy, IPOs, Events

Analysis of new equity issuance (IPOs, Placements)

Equity Capital Markets

We recently visited the Haidilao restaurant in Myeongdong, Seoul. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:9">Ke Yan, CFA, FRM</a> has written about this company in a report called <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/haidilao-ipo-first-glance-legendary-hot-pot-restaurant-that-will-be-hot-part-1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20614">Haidilao IPO First Glance: Legendary Hot Pot Restaurant that Will Be Hot (Part 1)</a>. Currently, there are four Haidilao restaurants in Korea, all in Seoul. Haidilao specializes in the "Chinese style hot pots" and in Korea they are also called "Chinese style shabu shabu." Haidilao and the Chinese style hot pots have been becoming more popular in Korea. There are…

In this insight, we discuss why we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> at current prices has a higher downside risk versus upside potential given limited visibility of near term operational recovery and its premium valuation.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> had issued a profit warning that it is expected to record a decrease of approximately 90% in net profit for the year ended Dec 2020 versus the previous year; this implies a likely recovery in earnings in 2H2020 vs 1H2020 but not significant enough to match pre-COVID levels nor street estimates. Detailed results are expected this week on March 23rd.We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>'s pace of sales recovery to be slower versus QSR peers (1) in the near term from ongoing restrictions in the social and dining scene, following cluster outbreaks, and (2) in the medium term from a shift in customer preference towards off-premise dining. Unlike QSR peer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)</a> that managed to recover most of the COVID-led fall in dining demand by growing off-premise dining, we believe  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> may find it difficult to pivot given experiential fine dining was core to its appeal and value positioning. Despite a difficult operating environment, the stock is up 83% YoY; a steep upswing in February this year was led by reports of it being included in HongKong's benchmark HangSeng Index from mid-March.

<ul>
<li>Haidilao International announced the spin-off plan of its overseas arm, Super Hi.</li>
<li>We take a quick look at Super Hi's fundamentals. We think it is unlikely for Super Hi to achieve the level of economy of scale as Haidilao in China.</li>
<li>We think the valuation of Super Hi should be compared to F&amp;B peers in the ASEAN region given that its business is mainly focused on the ASEAN region. </li>
</ul>

In this insight, we discuss the investment view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)</a> for the long and short term, based on analysis of its valuations, operational and financial outlook and Management commentary following the Q42020 results.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)</a> has rewarded investors with an 18% return in the past 6 months, almost in line with the index, and a 16% return from its HK secondary (Sep. 2020) listing price. The steady stock performance was backed by a stable recovery in operations and financials; it reported an 11 % growth in Q4 revenues and robust growth in operating and net income compared to 2019. The contrast with market-favourite in the segment, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> is notably stark. In the same time period (past 6 months), Haidilao stock price had a rollercoaster ride - buoyed up by index inclusion; and now back to Sep 2020 levels, underperforming the index by a wide margin.

Super Hi International Holding

Visit to a Haidilao Restaurant in London & Listing of Super Hi International in Hong Kong