Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Initiating Coverage on YPF: Outperform Opportunity Amid Macro and Shale Expansion

Initiating Coverage on Pemex: Set to Outperform on Reclassification Potential

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Overweight view and prefer the 2033 notes, which offer similar yield to the 2035s with lower duration risk.</li>
<li>Vista’s strong operating performance, growing exports, and lower sovereign risk than YPF support a resilient credit profile.</li>
<li>3Q25 results showed higher production and EBITDA, though liquidity remains tight; continued execution and easing country risk could drive bond outperformance.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Overweight view and prefer the 2033 notes, which offer similar yield to the 2035s with lower duration risk.
Vista’s strong operating performance, growing exports, and lower sovereign risk than YPF support a resilient credit profile.
3Q25 results showed higher production and EBITDA, though liquidity remains tight; continued execution and easing country risk could drive bond outperformance.


Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook

Vista Energy SAB de CV

Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook