Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Macau Marine transportation / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Fleet renewal tailwind: With an aging VLCC fleet (12.8 years average) and a lean orderbook (~9% of fleet), shipowners are incentivized to contract new tonnage.</li>
<li>Regional differentiation: Korean yards dominate (~50% share, with listed exposure via Hanwha Aerospace, HD Hyundai, Samsung HI), China anchors volumes through CSSC, while Japan remains niche and unlisted.</li>
<li>Cyclical caveat: Today’s high TCEs ($90k/day peaks) may not last; over-ordering could set up a 2028 glut, making VLCCs a cyclical rather than structural growth story.</li>
</ul>


Fleet renewal tailwind: With an aging VLCC fleet (12.8 years average) and a lean orderbook (~9% of fleet), shipowners are incentivized to contract new tonnage.
Regional differentiation: Korean yards dominate (~50% share, with listed exposure via Hanwha Aerospace, HD Hyundai, Samsung HI), China anchors volumes through CSSC, while Japan remains niche and unlisted.
Cyclical caveat: Today’s high TCEs ($90k/day peaks) may not last; over-ordering could set up a 2028 glut, making VLCCs a cyclical rather than structural growth story.


VLCC Shipbuilding: Aging Fleet, Lean Orderbook, and Renewal Momentum