Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity research on small cap consumer names.

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are lowering our FY25 projections and price target for Vince Holding ahead of the company reporting 4QFY24 (January) results next Friday.</li><li>While we love the company's product direction, material returns from further expansion in men's and accessories, ability to open new stores in key domestic and international arenas and the potential to add more wholesale relationships, and believe new management, under CEO Brendan Hoffman, is highly motivated to expand the brand and reach of Vince, we believe the company, with 79% of goods purchased from China in FY23, will be materially impacted in the near term by the current tariff regime, especially as they pivot in FY25.</li><li>As such, we believe the material turn in earnings we previously projected will now be shifted into FY26, and we are lowering our FY25 EPS from $0.55 to a loss per share of $0.08 and cutting our VNCE price target to $4 (from $6).</li></ul>

We are lowering our FY25 projections and price target for Vince Holding ahead of the company reporting 4QFY24 (January) results next Friday.While we love the company's product direction, material returns from further expansion in men's and accessories, ability to open new stores in key domestic and international arenas and the potential to add more wholesale relationships, and believe new management, under CEO Brendan Hoffman, is highly motivated to expand the brand and reach of Vince, we believe the company, with 79% of goods purchased from China in FY23, will be materially impacted in the near term by the current tariff regime, especially as they pivot in FY25.As such, we believe the material turn in earnings we previously projected will now be shifted into FY26, and we are lowering our FY25 EPS from $0.55 to a loss per share of $0.08 and cutting our VNCE price target to $4 (from $6).

VNCE: 4Q Preview; Being Realistic on Tariffs; Reit. Buy, Lowering PT & Estimate