European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Watches of Switzerland: Potential Takeover Offers and Market Dynamics Amidst Growth and Strategic Expansion

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>WOSG has returned to 685p after July’s takeover interest pushed the shares to 801.5p. Reported discussions involved both private equity and strategic buyers.</li>
<li>Our reverse-LBO suggests 750–800p is the credible PE range: 800p generates an 18.5% five-year IRR, while 850p cuts the return to 15.5%.</li>
<li>Higher leverage or an eight-year hold does not bridge the valuation gap. A strategic buyer could pay more, although watchmaker ownership risks conflicts with WOSG’s other suppliers.</li>
</ul>


WOSG has returned to 685p after July’s takeover interest pushed the shares to 801.5p. Reported discussions involved both private equity and strategic buyers.
Our reverse-LBO suggests 750–800p is the credible PE range: 800p generates an 18.5% five-year IRR, while 850p cuts the return to 15.5%.
Higher leverage or an eight-year hold does not bridge the valuation gap. A strategic buyer could pay more, although watchmaker ownership risks conflicts with WOSG’s other suppliers.


Watches of Switzerland: Where Does PE Stop?