European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>WDP's all-share merger with ARGAN offers a 2.6% gross spread, but our analysis suggests the market already discounts a high probability of completion, limiting remaining merger arbitrage upside.</li>
<li>Shareholder approval appears achievable at both companies. Our voting analysis shows ARGAN's approval is largely secured, while the WDP vote represents the more meaningful remaining governance milestone.</li>
<li>The strategic rationale is compelling and regulatory risk appears manageable, with the French tax ruling the principal remaining execution hurdle. We expect completion but view the current risk/reward as unattractive.</li>
</ul>


WDP's all-share merger with ARGAN offers a 2.6% gross spread, but our analysis suggests the market already discounts a high probability of completion, limiting remaining merger arbitrage upside.
Shareholder approval appears achievable at both companies. Our voting analysis shows ARGAN's approval is largely secured, while the WDP vote represents the more meaningful remaining governance milestone.
The strategic rationale is compelling and regulatory risk appears manageable, with the French tax ruling the principal remaining execution hurdle. We expect completion but view the current risk/reward as unattractive.


WDP: Straightforward ARGAN Merger, Little Arbitrage Left

Warehouses De Pauw

WDP: Straightforward ARGAN Merger, Little Arbitrage Left