Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Carry Trade Intact as Stronger Yen Requires More Than Foreign Exchange Intervention

Bank of Japan Policy Outlook Complicated by Fiscal Stimulus and Past Policy Legacies

Tariffs Create New Central Bank Agendas, While Bank of Japan Faces Fiscal Policy Nightmare

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Concerns continue about future Japanese fiscal policy conduct after the 8 February election. The BoJ has recently upgraded its growth and inflation outlooks, thereby providing justification for continued policy normalisation.</li>
<li>The current level of yen undervaluation significantly exceeds what prevailed during Plaza Accord's formulation, but the political desire in Japan to boost the yen versus the US dollar is low.</li>
<li>Gradual monetary policy normalisation will prolong the yen carry trade in the short term, but the BoJ's benign tolerance of excessive yen liquidity is likely to wane over time.</li>
</ul>


Concerns continue about future Japanese fiscal policy conduct after the 8 February election. The BoJ has recently upgraded its growth and inflation outlooks, thereby providing justification for continued policy normalisation.
The current level of yen undervaluation significantly exceeds what prevailed during Plaza Accord's formulation, but the political desire in Japan to boost the yen versus the US dollar is low.
Gradual monetary policy normalisation will prolong the yen carry trade in the short term, but the BoJ's benign tolerance of excessive yen liquidity is likely to wane over time.


Weak Yen Prolongs Carry Trade, but BoJ's Tolerance of Excessive Liquidity Will Wane