Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of analysis and briefings on the oil markets. Former Asia Editorial Director at S&P Global Platts, the topmost price reporting agency on global energy commodities markets. 25 years of experience reporting, researching and analysing energy markets. Focus on connecting the dots between supply-demand fundamentals, geopolitics, economics, financial markets and demographics to present the big-picture view on oil, with a focus on factors influencing prices. Experienced in oil price discovery in the physical and derivatives markets. Aim to provide insights and analysis in a clear and succinct manner. Available for bespoke research, analysis and market briefings on the markets.

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

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Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Just when crude’s relentless rally appeared to be running out of steam, it got a fresh injection of bullish sentiment last week. ICE Brent futures and NYMEX WTI settled at fresh three- and seven-year highs on Friday. The International Energy Agency estimates a 500,000 b/d boost in global oil demand from September through Q1 2022 on fuel switching. The IEA, as well as OPEC and the US Energy Information Administration, in their closely-watched monthly market reports, upgraded global oil demand estimates for the fourth quarter of this year.Providing bulls further ammunition, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman and his UAE counterpart Suhail al-Mazrouei, participating in a panel discussion at the Russian Energy Week in Moscow, rejected the need for OPEC+ to pump more oil. “We should look way beyond the tip of our noses,” ABS said, noting that oil stocks are expected to see substantial builds in 2022.But looking squarely at the tip of their noses is exactly what the frantic buyers of crude were doing, expecting a much bigger shortfall in supply of the liquid fuel in the coming months as winter boosts electricity demand even as gas and coal shortages persist in Europe and China.President Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to supply more gas to Europe, but hadn’t been asked to do so! Meanwhile, European leaders were preoccupied in drawing up a plan to cushion the blow of high gas and power prices on industries and consumers.We realized we haven't mentioned “Covid” in our weekly insights at least for the past couple of weeks! It doesn’t mean the pandemic is gone, of course, but it does seem to have retreated from the headlines and market chatter. If there are no more hurdles like the Delta wave this summer, the developed world and major developing economies, with their high vaccination rates, may finally step into the post-Covid era. That suggests continued recovery in mobility and oil consumption.But we still think the bullish oil narrative is discounting a major downside risk to demand – the headwinds of inflation and stubborn supply chain snarls dampening economic recovery, especially industrial activity and consumer sentiment.

Just when crude’s relentless rally appeared to be running out of steam, it got a fresh injection of bullish sentiment last week. ICE Brent futures and NYMEX WTI settled at fresh three- and seven-year highs on Friday. The International Energy Agency estimates a 500,000 b/d boost in global oil demand from September through Q1 2022 on fuel switching. The IEA, as well as OPEC and the US Energy Information Administration, in their closely-watched monthly market reports, upgraded global oil demand estimates for the fourth quarter of this year.Providing bulls further ammunition, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman and his UAE counterpart Suhail al-Mazrouei, participating in a panel discussion at the Russian Energy Week in Moscow, rejected the need for OPEC+ to pump more oil. “We should look way beyond the tip of our noses,” ABS said, noting that oil stocks are expected to see substantial builds in 2022.But looking squarely at the tip of their noses is exactly what the frantic buyers of crude were doing, expecting a much bigger shortfall in supply of the liquid fuel in the coming months as winter boosts electricity demand even as gas and coal shortages persist in Europe and China.President Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to supply more gas to Europe, but hadn’t been asked to do so! Meanwhile, European leaders were preoccupied in drawing up a plan to cushion the blow of high gas and power prices on industries and consumers.We realized we haven't mentioned “Covid” in our weekly insights at least for the past couple of weeks! It doesn’t mean the pandemic is gone, of course, but it does seem to have retreated from the headlines and market chatter. If there are no more hurdles like the Delta wave this summer, the developed world and major developing economies, with their high vaccination rates, may finally step into the post-Covid era. That suggests continued recovery in mobility and oil consumption.But we still think the bullish oil narrative is discounting a major downside risk to demand – the headwinds of inflation and stubborn supply chain snarls dampening economic recovery, especially industrial activity and consumer sentiment. 

Weekly Oil Views: Sentiment Spurs Prices Higher Even as Fundamentals Remain Steady

Crude Oil

Weekly Oil Views: Sentiment Spurs Prices Higher Even as Fundamentals Remain Steady